Puerto Rico Voter Sentiment Insights: Elections 2024

on August 13, 2024

A study of 1,138 registered voters across Puerto Rico gives a new view of the opinions of the Island’s voters on political issues.

Statehood still wins

Asked their choice of the political status options to be offered in the upcoming plebiscite, voters once again chose statehood:

Statehood: 45%
Sovereign Free-Associated State: 23%
Independence: 11%

If the choice was between statehood and independence, 73% would choose statehood. This indicates that the respondents do not see free association as a variant of independence. Most supporters of free association would choose statehood over independence.

This is important because the U.S. government has made it abundantly clear that free association with the United States is in fact a treaty between two independent nations, not a “best of both worlds” option similar to “enhanced commonwealth.” The survey results suggest that Puerto Rico voters do not all realize this.

The survey also included some questions about drawbacks and benefits of statehood.

51% believe that statehood would reduce population drain from Puerto Rico.
32% believed statehood would bring more benefits and more funding for healthcare.
29% expected statehood to improve education.
25% said statehood would bring equality as American citizens
21% were concerned about additional taxes.
20% said they could vote in presidential elections as a state.
19% were concerned about loss of cultural identity.
15% looked forward to greater stability as a state.

In addition, 85% considered their U.S. citizenship, which is guaranteed only under statehood, very important.

Feelings on the plebiscite

40% of those surveyed said they were in favor of holding another status plebiscite in November, as Governor Pierluisi plans to do. The governor considers it important to keep making it clear that Puerto Rico is ready for statehood, and that the Island has already made its choice. Nonetheless, the Puerto Rico Status Act allows a federally-sponsored final referendum on political status in Puerto Rico. All three of the non-territorial options for political status would be offered on the ballot.

Those who were opposed to holding another referendum had some special reasons:

The 2024 plebiscite would once again be a non-binding vote to show the desired of the majority of voters. It would not commit Congress to action.
For the same reason, some said it was a waste of time.
Others considered it a waste of money, again because of the lack of action by Congress on previous plebiscites.

Essentially, the idea of holding another referendum when Congress has not acted on previous votes is frustrating for many voters. This is reasonable. However, it is also important to notice the progress being made. The Puerto Rico Status Act passed the House in 2022 and is currently pending in both the House and the Senate. Continuing on as a territory is not being considered, and few in the U.S. government support that option. The myth of the “enhanced commonwealth” has been debunked. Plebiscite fatigue should not cause us to give up efforts to end the colonial relationship.

And indeed, this was nearly as common a point of view as the expressions of frustration. While 14% said that nothing happens with the results of plebiscites, 13% said “We must keep pushing for a solution to resolve Puerto Rico’s status issue.” Another 18% said either that a plebiscite will advance the status solution or that it sends a message to Congress.

Political parties and candidates

In their answers on political parties and candidates, respondents showed some changes from the past. Asked which of the Island’s political parties they identified with, voters in the survey named these parties:

37% feel associated with the PNP.
20% with the PPD.
5% with the PIP.
4% with Proyecto Dignidad.
4% with MVC.
26% reported not being affiliated with any party.

In spite of the fairly high number of unaffiliated voters, more than half of those surveyed said that they vote for their party. Younger voters were more likely to say that they vote for their preferred candidate regardless of party.

Voters were also asked about the national parties:

47% of voters identify with the Democratic Party of the United States.
22% with the Republican Party.
24% with neither.

Asked about their choices for candidates, the respondents showed loyalty to their territorial parties or to their status preference, not to their national party leanings:

Governor Preference:

44% prefer Jennifer González of the PNP.
21% prefer Juan Dalmau of the PIP.
16% prefer Jesús Manuel Ortíz of the PPD.
6% prefer Javier Jiménez of Proyecto Dignidad.

Resident Commissioner Preference:

35% would vote for William Villafañe (PNP).
22% for Pablo José Hernández (PPD).
13% for Ana Irma Rivera of the MVC.
5% for Viviana Ramírez of Proyecto Dignidad.

85% want to be able to vote for the President of the United States, a right which is limited to U.S. citizens who live in a state.

President Preference:

39% prefer Kamala Harris.
38% prefer Donald Trump.

Despite the fact that 47% chose the Democratic Party as their preferred national party, 44% chose Republican Jennifer Gonzalez-Colon for their next governor. the choice of Gonzalez-Colon might also show the personal popularity of the candidate; the numbers for governor and resident commissioner preferences show the strength of the PNP, but also show that not all the respondents would vote a straight party ticket.

Taken together, the data on this section of the survey do not support the common claim that Puerto Rico’s voters would form a monolithic Democratic Party voting bloc. In addition, Puerto Ricans generally do not favor the legalization of abortion, firearms, or open borders for undocumented immigrants. They also do not favor same-sex marriage. Overall, respondents expressed themselves as socially conservative, holding positions more often associated with Republican than with Democratic voters.

Other issues

The survey examined some other sociopolitical issues.

90% have close family ties in the 50 states, and 50% pay attention to news from the states. Younger voters get that news from Instagram and Facebook, while the older respondents relied more on traditional news sources, YouTube, and X (Twitter).

Respondents were fairly optimistic about their personal and national situations, but not about Puerto Rico. 43% described their economic position as fair or excellent, while 16% expected 2025 to be a difficult year, financially. 41% said the United States is going in a good direction, while 46% said it was not. By contrast, only 13% considered Puerto Rico to be in a good position, with 36% expecting 2025 to be a difficult year for the Island.

Nearly 80% of respondents consider participation in the Olympics and in international beauty pageants important. It is worth considering whether these matters are actually more important than civil rights, healthcare equity, or education. But it is also important to note that the United States could object to Puerto Rico’s participation in international contests like these at any time. France did so, and French territories lost their ability to participate in the Miss Universe pageant. On the other hand, China objected to Taiwan’s participation in the Olympics and the Olympic Committee overruled their objections. While the connection between statehood and these contests is not as clear-cut as many people think, it nonetheless brings up emotions for voters.

2024 elections

Heading into the 2024 elections, we can see that the Puerto Rico electorate is complex and deeply engaged in a variety of political issues. The survey confirms that Puerto Rico will be a swing state, and that statehood is the majority preference of Puerto Rico voters. The respondents are strongly connected with the United States, concerned about the future, and frustrated with the current political situation of the Island.

We will continue to share the additional results from the survey in coming days. Download the Puerto Rico Political Landscape Report.