A recent poll of Puerto Rico voters showed some confusion over free association. We were not surprised.
Here’s the confusing data:
- 45% said they would choose statehood for Puerto Rico’s political status.
- 23% said they would choose Sovereign Free-Associated State.
- 11% favored independence.
However, given.a choice between statehood and independence, 73% would choose statehood. That’s not just all the people who chose statehood plus all the people who chose free association. If it were just that everyone who wanted free association rejected independence and went with statehood, statehood would have 68% in the second question. But statehood got 73%. Did 5 of the 11% change their minds about independence when asked in another way?
What’s confusing?
The choices among the three status options offered in the plebiscite (and the Puerto Rico Status Act) do not add up to 100%. They come to 79%. Another 15% said they did not plan to vote. We must assume that 6% of respondents were uncertain, or wanted something else, perhaps to remain a territory or to have the mythical “enhanced commonwealth.” But 34% chose a form of nationhood.
Once they were told that statehood and nationhood were the only options, 73% chose statehood. Just 27% either chose independence or refused the choice. Fewer than 34% chose nationhood. That means that more than 20% of the people who initially chose nationhood are not actually willing to consider independence.
Further confusion
The survey also asked people what the current political status of Puerto Rico is. 68% got it right: Puerto Rico is an unincorporated territory of the United States. 11% said that Puerto Rico is currently independent and 17% said, “None of the above.” The researchers reported “general confusion about Puerto Rico’s status.”
There was also a good deal of mismatch between political party affiliation and voting intention. For example, 26% of Independence Party members said they would vote for statehood.
But even if we accept that Puerto Rico’s political situation is generally confusing, Sovereign Free Association is especially confusing.
Free association vs. independence
The United States has Compacts of Free Association with three nations: The Federated States of Micronesia, the Marshall Islands, and Palau. None are citizens of the United States. All are independent nations. Free association may mean different things in different times and places, but for the United States, it is a treaty between two independent nations. Either country can end the relationship at any time without the agreement of the other nation.
If a new Republic of Puerto Rico negotiated a Compact of Free Association with the United States, it would be an independent nation. It could not expect U.S. citizenship (and 85% of the people interviewed in the survey said that’s important to them). If that treaty ended, Puerto Rico would not go back to being a territory of the United States. It would continue to be an independent nation.
The numbers above tell us that 11% of voters chose independence and 23% chose independence with free association. In other words, 34% chose independence. But given a choice between statehood and independence, only 27% did not choose statehood. The difference between the two questions means that many of the people who chose nationhood in the first question would not accept independence without a compact of free association.
The middle choice
Psychologists have found that people make different choices when they have only two options than if they have three. Offered a watch for $20 and another for $200, most people will choose the $20 watch. Given a choice among three watches at $20, $50, and $200, most will choose the $50 watch. It may be that free association holds that place.
Given all three options, people may think of it as somewhere between statehood and independence. In fact, we have seen free association contrasted with “full independence” as though it weren’t really independence at all.
Negotiating a compact
The numbers are fairly clear: Puerto Rico would choose statehood if given the chance. But let’s imagine that there was a sudden change of heart and many people voted for free association. If that happened, the new nation of Puerto Rico would need to negotiate a compact of free association with the United States. It is not possible for voters to know what the terms of that compact would be until after they have already voted. They would be voting for a mystery.
This should be familiar. Puerto Rico has voted in the past for “commonwealth” without any idea what that might turn out to be. In fact, it turned out to be a colonial relationship: unincorporated territory, with none of the features the “commonwealth” party dreamed about.
Let’s not repeat this mistake. A vote for free association is actually a vote for independence. A vote for statehood is a vote for equality and justice.
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