We’ve been seeing news stories claiming that Puerto Rico is having a historic moment of change, with large numbers of Puerto Ricans now turning to a pro-independence candidate for the first time in years. Indeed, a gubernatorial candidate from the Independence Party is polling in second place for the first time ever. This shift is being hailed as “a huge political realignment” or “a wind of change” or “a big political shakeup.”
After decades of having two significant political parties — one favoring statehood and the other pushing a mythical “enhanced commonwealth” — Puerto Rico is giving serious attention to a third party. But is this history in the making?
The run up to the election
There have been three status votes in the 21st century. In all three, statehood has won the majority. Anti-statehood factions have used sophistry to question these wins and have successfully muddied the water enough to confuse people, but in democratic elections, the majority position wins the election. Even in U.S. presidential elections, arguing that the popular vote had a different outcome from the electoral vote or that the turnout was low has no effect on the outcome. So we can leave it at this: statehood won every time.
Independence never got more than 5% of the vote in any status election, and it continues to get the lowest number of votes in all polls. “Commonwealth” has been popular in the past, but it has become clear in recent years that it is a sham. All three branches of the federal government have made it clear that Puerto Rico never had a special “best of both worlds” deal with the U.S. and that they will not accept anything resembling the “enhanced commonwealth” option. As this truth has finally become too obvious to ignore, the “commonwealth” party has lost support. Statehood remains the majority position.
The pro-independence candidate
Former supporters of the “enhanced commonwealth” have in many cases recognized that they can’t argue convincingly for “commonwealth” any more. Many of them have switched to “sovereign free association.” Sovereigntists’ description of this option is often just like the traditional definition of “enhanced commonwealth”: freedom from federal laws, full economic support from the United States, guaranteed U.S. citizenship, and the ability to make deals with foreign governments while relying on the U.S. for defense, but without giving up military sovereignty to the United States.
This is not going to happen. There is nothing in U.S. history that suggests that this will ever be acceptable to Congress, and no alternative way to achieve it without Congress.
But there are people who want it and are able to delude themselves into believing that they can successfully demand it. These people may very well be turning away from the traditional statehood and “commonwealth” parties. They probably are improving polling results for the third-party candidate.
The next referendum
Are we seeing a sea change in Puerto Rico politics? Are younger Puerto Ricans determined to gain independence? Or are we just seeing a continuation of the deception that kept people yearning for “enhanced commonwealth” for decades?
There are, under the U.S. Constitution, only three options for relationships between the United States and Puerto Rico:
- Puerto Rico can continue as an unincorporated territory indefinitely.
- Puerto Rico can become an independent nation, with or without a Compact of Free Association but almost certainly without U.S. citizenship.
- Puerto Rico can be admitted as a state of the Union, on an equal footing with the other states.
Anything else is a fantasy. The option to continue as a territory is not on this November’s ballot. There is a choice between statehood and independence. There is the illusory option of “sovereign free association,” but clear-eyed examination shows that this is a form of independence. A recent poll asking Puerto Ricans to choose between statehood and independence showed 73% chose statehood.
Statehood is expected to win again in the next referendum. If that happens, it will be another strong signal to the Congress. Their time for ignoring Puerto Rico is coming to an end.
Voters who figure that statehood will win so they don’t need to vote, or that the vote is non-binding so they can skip it — these voters could produce another election result that anti-statehood factions can twist and confuse. We need a clear mandate for statehood. Please vote. Please encourage your friends and family to vote.
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